Some predictive models of Covid-19 infections for the province of Loja - Ecuador
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37135/ns.01.08.04Keywords:
COVID-19, least squares, logistics model, pandemic, predictive modelAbstract
Loja province, as elsewhere in the world, has been affected by COVID-19, testing the capacity of health systems and the expertise of rulers. Given this scenario, obtaining predictions of the progress of contagion cases is a very important factor when making decisions. To estimate and predict the level of contagions, we used the data provided by some simple models such as the split differences, simple logistic models, a logistic model that includes the confinement ratio and the least squares method. As a basis, the data provided by the Ministry of Public Health of Ecuador were used in a period of 399 days from the appearance of the first cases and their processing was carried out with the GNU Octave Software, version: 5.1.0. The logistic models are unsatisfactory due to the lack of knowledge of some factors and constants, such as the real rate of contagion, recovered, the mobility of infected individuals and their iteration with non-infected individuals, the real proportion of the level of confinement in each political jurisdiction. The least squares method offers better results for making predictions, since it does not make use of rates or proportions and minimizes quadratic error, i.e. it finds the only curve that passes between the points of the actual data.
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