Multi-temporal analysis of land use change in the Zarumilla river basin: Projections to 2040
Estudio del cambio de uso de suelo en la cuenca binacional del río Zarumilla
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37135/ns.01.14.05Keywords:
Basin, Deforestation, Prospection, River, Land-useAbstract
The binational basin of the Zarumilla River is a place with great species diversity and is particularly important to the economy of Peru and Ecuador. These socioeconomic factors can lead to changes in land cover distribution, which negatively affect ecosystems. The present study aims to evaluate changes in land cover and use during the period 1992-2022 and to generate a projection for the year 2040 following current usage trends and historical patterns. Land cover and use maps from 1992 and 2022 were used, along with georeferenced information that was employed to identify the conditioning factors for land change. The prospection model was based on the implementation of Markov chains and cellular automata using conditioning factors to build a more accurate projection. The results obtained reflect a net loss of 11378 hectares of forest during the period 1992-2022, with 87.7% of this loss occurring on the Ecuadorian side of the watershed. At this rate, a forest loss of 10552 hectares can be projected for the period 2022-2040, similarly projected mainly on the Ecuadorian side. The projection model also highlights that the main changes will occur in low-altitude areas and in proximity to water sources and roads. This is an alarming loss of native forest, which can be avoided through the creation of sustainable development policies and land-use planning programs.
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