Spatiotemporal dynamics, drivers of change, and prospective analysis of forest cover in the Puyango river basin (1990–2045)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37135/ns.01.18.05Keywords:
Deforestation, Environmental drivers, Land use, Prospective analysis, Puyango River basinAbstract
Forest cover and land-use changes are a global phenomenon that impacts biodiversity, hydrological cycles, and climate regulation. The binational Puyango River basin faces increasing anthropogenic pressure that is transforming its landscape. This study assessed the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest cover and land use between 1990 and 2024, identified the main drivers of change, and projected a 2045 scenario, using the 2014 LULC for validation. A multitemporal analysis was carried out using Landsat imagery processed in Google Earth Engine and classified using the Random Forest algorithm. The transition potential was modeled with the Land Change Modeler (TerrSet) using a logistic regression that incorporated eight driving factors. The Kappa indices of the supervised classification were 0.76 (1990), 0.94 (2014), and 0.93 (2024), indicating substantial to very high agreement. Results showed a net loss of 49167 ha of forest, while agricultural lands increased by 35989 ha. Logistic regression (AUC = 0.67) revealed that proximity to agricultural land is the main driver of deforestation (OR = 1.28; p < 0.001), while topographic factors such as altitude and slope limit land conversion. The 2045 scenario forecasts a significant loss of forest (16604.47 ha). It is concluded that deforestation and agricultural expansion are the most critical processes in the basin, threatening forests and associated ecosystem services. Therefore, effective conservation and land-use planning strategies are required.
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